Like a butterfly . . .

The night air is turning cooler in the mid-atlantic region.  The early autumn warm winds have turned cool as we move closer to Halloween.  It is a great time to get outdoors and spend a little time with Mother Nature as she sheds her summer wardrobe and prepares us for the fall.

There is much to be learned from a walk in the park.  It is the time of the year when mums strut their stuff. Each plant preening for just one more visit from the butterfly.  Most of the butterflys have gone. A wiser man than I might know where they go. I just enjoy them

They don’t seem to fly……no, they flit………from here to there and back again. One day they are here and then….gone again.

I was just sitting on a rock, watching the last butterfly of the season. I thought …. one small creature creating so much beauty and grace as it moves through it’s own life cycle.

I realized that love is like that butterfly.  It shows up and dazzles you with beauty and grace. You sit in wonder. You enjoy every movement. Days can be spent pondering the ease with which it captures your spirit.

Then the fall comes, as it must.  The butterfly is gone.

It was never yours anyway.

Butterflies, like love, are to be enjoyed for the moment.  They should never be taken for granted.  They should never be expected to more than they are…………butterflies.  Love is the same.

Don’t despair………fall will turn to winter and winter will turn to spring.  Spring will bring flowers and if you are lucky, a butterfly again.

This too shall pass . . .

Is the housing crisis over…it has not yet begun..

If you dig around the bottom of the oak tree long enough, even a blind squirrel will stumble across an acorn.  I was doing my normal morning reads of blog entries and reports on line and came across the best overview of why the housing market has probably NOT reached bottom. The information is vital for anyone that wants to understand what the future might hold. No one has a crystal ball. Everyone can grasp that a train travelling at 100 mph will destroy whatever may be in it’s path that is sitting still 10 feet away.

All the rosey reports from the administration and all the positive statements from the National Association of Realtors are not, I repeat, are not a light at the end of the tunnel.

I ask that you read this blog in total. I ask you because I believe that everyone has a right to all the information. I won’t even try to persuade  you that one side or the other is telling the truth. I will merely present the facts that I have culled from different sources. I will leave you to ponder the post and at the very least be in the position to have a better understanding about what is really on those tracks.

Most people out there probably know somebody who is behind on their mortgage payments, looking for alternatives and likely also just finding out that their home’s value has dipped below what they still owe on the home.  I know some within my own personal and professional circles  Some of them ask me to advise them as a professional or a friend because all the data is very confusing. They are in a tough spot and don’t understand what has happened or if there is a way out of their dilemma. These are very tough times for the families that are behind in their mortgage or have no plans to sell but have seen their equity vanish overnight. The two most frequent questions asked are “when is this going to stop and where are we heading?”

The answer is up in the air? There are trends and information that give an indication of what is going on behind the headlines. These are a few graphs that show the trends nationally with regards to mortgage delinquincies:

This chart is by quarter – Single-family mortgages set a new record delinquency rate in the second quarter of 2009, according to a quarterly survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. We all  see the foreclosure process unfolding in our neighborhoods  but the looming delinqency-to-foreclosure issue is far, far larger.

The Wall Street Journal on 8/3/09 reported the following quote: “While subprime mortgages sparked the first round of housing problems two years ago, now “troubles are lurking further up the food chain,” says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. White-collar job losses have accelerated while more adjustable-rate loans to prime borrowers are resetting to higher payments. ‘You put all that together, it leads me to believe that the next leg down on home prices is going to come from the top,’ he says.”

Now you might read that and  say “yes, but historically those who are delinqent usually get their act together and come current on the mortgage after a while”.  That WAS true, but not anymore! We call that the“Cure Rate”, that is the rate of delinquencies that go back to current.  The Wall Street Journal reported on 8/24/09 about a Fitch analysis that found that the Cure Rate from 2000-2006 was 45% (which means about half of people fix their delinquency).  However, as of July 2009 the rate had dropped to just 6.6%!  That means that over 90% of delinquent customers are going to foreclosure.  Please take a moment and consider the implication of that fact. Take a look again at the above chart…

The next thing someone will say is “well, that’s in those hard hit areas’ and not where I live”.  Here’s the chart for all 50 states showing the same breakdown of delinquencies and foreclosures.  Most states have a significant problem, especially compared to historical figures. The problem exists in the North, South, East and West. It exists on the coasts and in the middle of the country. It my friends is everywhere.

Now some may say is “aren’t those loans going to get ‘fixed’ by a loan modification?” I know several people right now who are applying for a  loan modification but are waiting and waiting.  I hope it works out for them…

In reality, loan modifications are hardly making a dent. Why arent banks being more aggressive in giving customers the option to extend their loan and/or reset to a lower rate?  Why are they being SO difficult? The people I know don’t want to be foreclosed.  They CAN make payments.  They just need the terms redrawn to allow them to catch & keep up.  Loan modifications are not helping us get this crisis under control.

It would seem that loan modification is window dressing on a house and senate full of no answers. What are the causes of all these delinquencies?  Here’s a chart that is enlightening:

We hear a lot about adjustable rate mortgages being the culprit, but in reality it’s the loss of jobs and the tanking real estate market that’s the perfect storm.

You don’t have to ask why I continue to point out the negative equity problem. You might be better off asking your elected officials what their plans are to resolve this problem.

I have to thank  Jeff Geoghan for bringing lots of this information to me in a post on Active Rain. If you would like to contact Jeff, let me know and I will point you in the right direction.

May you have an easy fast . . .

We are a nation of many faiths and some that profess no faith.  Each faith celebrates holy days. As a nation, we celebrate the Christian faith’s Christmas (although in a rather crass commercial fashion).  I personally enjoy the Christmas season. I don’t mind the long lines, I prefer to consider that the majority of people are buying a gift for someone else and there will be happy faces Christmas morning. I can even tolerate the commercialism of the day. Maybe I am just ensconced in the mixture of the spirit of Frank Capra’s “It’s a wonderful life” and the holiday classic “Miracle on 34th street” from the pen of Valentine Davies, with a solid dash of  Charles Dicken’s “The Christmas Carol”.

It is a time of giving.  Oh, I know some will loosely connect the thought of God giving us his only Son or they will point to the gift of the three wise men as the basis of the gifts.  In another life, when I was sort of an associate pastor of a church, I wrote a wonderful sermon about Jesus, the wise men, the spirit of Christ (SC) and Santa Claus (SC).  It was a self serving, I can tie it all together homily. In reality, there are two events sharing the same date and name.

As we approach the fall, the chill in the evening air brings thoughts of the holiday season. We seem to pack so many into a short period of time. Usually we have just gotten past the secular Labor Day and Muslim’s worldwide have endured their month long Ramadan.  The young ones are just back in school and thoughts of trick or treat are being offered in every retail establishment.  Football season has just begun and that signals we have begun the procession to the feast of Thanksgiving.

Can we back up a moment?  The feast of Ramadan is pretty much overlooked in the USA. If you are not a Muslim, you may only give it a passing thought. If you stop and read about it, you might be surprised. During Ramadan, Muslims ask forgiveness for past sins, pray for guidance and help in refraining from everyday evils, and try to purify themselves through self-restraint and good deeds. This is a month long observance.  According to the earliest hadith, this refers to the Jewish practice of fasting on Yom Kippur.

Yom Kippur falls on this monday. It is the highest of holy days in the Jewish faith. It is the day of atonement. Its central themes are atonement and repentance. Jews traditionally observe this holy day with an approximately 25-hour period of fasting and intensive prayer, often spending most of the day in synagogue services. Yom Kippur completes the annual period known in Judaism as the High Holy Days.

I have always admired Muslims and Jews for celebrating in this fashion.  It is a wonderful spiritual concept that you designate one period of time each year for introspection and admitting your faults, accepting your fallibility and taking the next step in asking forgiveness for your transgressions. I would not suggest that you limit this to one time a year. Neither of these faiths limit the practice to just once a year.  The holy day attempts to bring focus back to the core principals. It is a good thing.

It is not a hidden fact that Christianity has seen declines in church attendance and membership. It is also not a secret that most of the holy days in Christianity have been secularized and commercialized.  Christmas is painted with images of Santa Claus and presents under a tree,  Easter is a time of bunny rabbits and candy filled Easter baskets. The refraining from eating meat on Fridays in memory of Good Friday has been reduced to not eating meat on Good Friday.  Recently, many of the traditional saints have lost their stature and confusion has arisen regarding what days are special and what days are no longer special.  The feast of All Souls and All Saints has given way to trick or treat and visions of ghosts, goblins and witches.

I was born into a Christian family (Catholic to be specific). I was raised in a traditional Christian environment. I have seen the power of tradition and faith give way to the power of t.v. and commercialism. I can’t change it.

I can only dip into my friends beliefs and practices. I can only marvel that 5,770 years of tradition still holds strong. I can only be humbled that for one day, my friends will fast and seek atonement.  For my part, I too will consider the things I have done and not done this year. I will pledge to do better. I will ask forgiveness.  I will be thankful that I live in a country where religion is practiced freely and I have had the opportunity to learn so much. I will end with a prayer and hope that people everywhere recognize the wonderful beauty in our differences and that they will realize that for all our differences, we are very much alike in our belief and faith.

Oh, and for my Jewish friends………..   May you have an easy fast.