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Your life, my life, the neighbor’s life and the world around us all combine to create days filled with ups and downs.  Oh, we probably spend more time on the level spots, but when life happens…..it is like a roller coaster.

I am a real estate agent.  O.K., the National Association of Realtors prefer that I call myself a Realtor.  Fair enough.  I do pay my annual dues and when I joined I promised to uphold their code of Ethics.  You?  You could come from any walk of life.  Visitors to my blog include other agents, folks in the mortgage industry, major news publications as well as doctors, lawyers and an occasional indian chief.

I love this venue.  Admission is free and the only requirement is the desire to read.  The contents here will not follow any discernable pattern.  I might share information about the Home Buyers Tax Credit one day and the next post a personal entry about my life, my love, my children or the pain of being a sports fan in the Nations Capital.  I use this little spot to expose me.

I believe a stronger bond is formed when two sides have something in common.  I will not deny, my goal is to present myself to those of you that do not know me and might be in need of my services.  I do my best work when there is a comfort level between me and my clients.

So, scroll through the offerings.  If you have a specific question, well you can write, comment, or click on the picture over there on the left side of the page and talk to me now.

If nothing else, welcome aboard and enjoy the ride !

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The “R” logo … a badge of shame?

So I peruse Inman News this morning.  For the uninitiated, Inman News is one of the trade publications covering the real estate industry.  One of their top writers, Matt Carter shared that the NAR has been “cooking the books” to create the illusion that the market is better than it really is.  The NAR (the National Association of Realtors) has always offered information with a overly positive spin.  Real Estate agents have had to overcome questionable advertising done the by the NAR for years.  A case in point, as homes across the country were falling into foreclosure and the facts were revealed regarding bundling and re-selling mortgages, the NAR decided it was a good time to promote home ownership was a good investment. Mr.Carter’s story is just another black eye.

It is important to share, membership in the NAR is not required for an agent to practice real estate. Of course, if you are not a member of the NAR and your local state association, your access to the Multiple Listing Service is restricted and you can not function as a real estate agent.  It is like saying you don’t need a driver’s license to be a cab driver but you can not operate a motor vehicle on public thoroughfares without a driver’s license.

Now we find out that those of us working as real estate agents that have been convinced something about the data provided by the NAR does not jibe with out local markets have been correct.  The market is as bad as we have imagined.  The data provided by the NAR has been a lie.  They are now scrambling to restate (?) the data.

In the interim, that famous “R” logo is losing it’s luster and fast becoming a badge of shame.  Mr. Carter’s article states:

Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing home by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.

A NAR spokesman said the Corelogic claim “is premature at best,” and NAR will be making some benchmark revisions to its historic sales data later this year.

NAR’s figures — based on data collected from multiple listing services and large brokerages — show sales of existing homes fell 5 percent in 2010, to 4.9 million. But CoreLogic, which collects public sales records from county recorders and courts, estimates that home sales actually fell 12 percent, to 3.6 million.

The implications are not trivial: a slower rate of sales means that it will take longer to burn through unsold inventory, and a glut of homes for sale in a given market can undermine prices. CoreLogic says the unsold inventory on the market in November represented 16 months of supply, compared to NAR’s estimate of 9.5 months.

Weak sales following the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credits, an excess supply of unsold homes, and the impact of sales of distressed homes is driving home prices down, CoreLogic said. A national, repeat-sales home price index compiled by the company was down 5.1 percent in November from a year ago.

If that trend continues, national home prices will probably be down 10 percent year-over-year by spring, CoreLogic said.

In its latest forecast, NAR projects that the median existing home price will be down 0.6 percent from a year ago during the first quarter of 2011, but post year-over year gains for the next five consecutive quarters.

CoreLogic says one reason NAR’s existing home sales data may be inflated is because the benchmark multiplier NAR analysts use to adjust for MLSs which they aren’t getting data from hasn’t been calibrated since 2004.

But there’s been consolidation among MLSs since then, CoreLogic noted, and a decline in the number of for-sale-by-owner sales outside the MLS and brokerage process. That means NAR is now capturing a greater percentage of existing home sales and doesn’t need to make so large an adjustment when extrapolating its results.

CoreLogic said that historically it’s only been able to account for 85 to 90 percent of the existing home sales tallied by NAR.

Beginning in 2006, NAR’s sales numbers began to look even more inflated relative to data collected by CoreLogic, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a trend that has “continued and become more pronounced through 2010,” CoreLogic said in the February edition of its monthly report, “U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends.”

While NAR numbers show home sales bottomed in 2008 and then rebounded in 2009, CoreLogic data shows no such rebound in 2009.

CoreLogic Senior Economist Sam Khater said the analysis “is less about NAR’s data than a critique of data in general.”

“Anytime you’ve got fundamental changes in the market like that, it’s going to cause market data to go haywire,” Khater said. It’s important to have data from a wide range of sources, Khater said, in order to “see where the truth lies in between them.”

NAR spokesman Walt Molony said that while NAR will be making benchmark revisions later this year to its historic sales data,  “data drift” issues are expected to be “relatively minor.”

“Under the circumstances, the Corelogic claim is premature at best, especially given the process that is currently under way,” Molony said in an e-mail.

The last benchmark revisions of the existing-home sales series was based on 2000 Census data, Molony said, and NAR will soon be rebenchmarking using independent sources. NAR will be consulting with outside housing economists on the methodology to determine if there is any drift in the data, and by how much, he said.

“There’s been a notable increase in nontraditional sales outside MLSs, so a major function in consulting with outside housing economists and government agencies is to determine methodology and obtain consensus on the benchmarking,” Molony said.

He said NAR will also be looking for a new way to rebenchmark existing home sales on a more frequent basis instead of waiting for  Census data to be updated every 10 years. NAR already updates sales rates and months’ supply benchmarks on an annual basis, Molony said.

Molony said the rebenchmarking of existing home sales will result in “no notable changes” to NAR’s previous characterizations of monthly sales changes, and no impact on price data.

Khater said CoreLogic’s public records data captures all sales, whether they involve a mortgage or are all-cash purchases, and regardless of whether a home was listed in an MLS or not.

One drawback with public records data is the lag time before sales are reported and data are collected. Khater said CoreLogic estimated December 2010 existing-home sales in the February report using preliminary data.

There you have it.  Core Logic uses actual data and the NAR uses data from the systems they control…the MLS. If you are interested, have a conversation with any agent about the accuracy of the MLS. All of the data in the MLS is entered by the agents and there is no methodology in place to match it with any facts.

It just could be what was perceived as pessimism on the part of some agents was actually a taste of reality. The market is a long way from recovery.  We know. We work here everyday. We don’t need statistics. We see the results of diminishing returns on our personal income.

So, NAR, forgive me if I don’t endorse you. I pay my dues. I really don’t have a choice in the matter. I only ask that you do not use any of my dues to support your continued skewering the truth.

 

 

 

The convenience truth…

This is all we’ve got … one planet

The other morning I came across an article in the Washington Post regarding the melting glaciers in Peru. It is safe to say that for the majority of my life, I never would have bothered to read the article.  Peru is so far away and the fact that they have glaciers melting would not have triggered any interest on my part.

Fortunately, for me and everyone connected to me, Peru is much closer to home now.  I have spent the last three years of my life in a relationship with a woman that was born and raised in Lima, Peru.  She did not just bring herself into the relationship.  She brought along a culture that is deeply rooted within her.  She brought along her essence, and I became so much richer for the experience.

I was born in Washington, DC and have been a resident of the DC area all of my life.  I went through life believing that I was an American.  Today, I understand that America includes North, South and Central America.  My vision of myself and my country has been altered somewhat.  Today, I understand that those that live in the land of plenty have taken so much for granted that they fail to see the convenience truth.

The first shock to my sensibilities occurred when my woman shared her history with me.  I learned as we shared with each other.  My story regarding the horror of Kent State and the National Guard patrolling the streets of DC at various times were countered with her memories of living under military rule with tanks in the streets and bombs going off on a regular basis.  She shared things that are incomprehensible to most people born and raised here.

People in the United States of America blindly have faith that when they turn on a spigot, water will emerge. It is a given.  It is always there.  We have spigots in the kitchen, the bathrooms, the powder rooms, the laundry rooms and outside of our homes.  Turn the spigot and voila, water flows.  One morning, I was shaving.  I left the hot water running while I shaved.  When finished,  I was confronted ( in a gentle manner ) by my lady and she asked why did I leave the spigot running?  Wouldn’t it make more sense to turn it on and off as needed?  I didn’t bother, it was more convenient to leave the water running. This is a convenience truth … it is easier to waste water than conserve resources. In the aforementioned article, people shared that a 3 hours walk to get water has become a 6 hour journey now that the glaciers are melting at such a rapid pace.

One night, I came upstairs to my office to handle some emails.  I left the television set and lights on in the family room.  I had full intentions of going back down when I finished my work.  My dear lady came in the office and asked if it would be possible for me to turn the t.v. and lights off if I was not using them. I thought about it. Electricity is always there ( barring a storm ).  Flip a switch or press a button and voila … you have power.  Then I realized that leaving electricity on when I was not using it was kind of stupid.  I had left everything on because it was more convenient.  This is a convenience truth … it is easier to use up available energy than it is to conserve natural resources.

We spent one of our early afternoons together going through all the things I brought to the home.  Boxes and boxes of stuff.  Stuff I wanted. Stuff I bought. Stuff I forgot I had. Stuff I had bought twice or more. Stuff.  Together, we decluttered so there would be room for my stuff and her stuff.  When the sorting was done, we hauled what we did not want to the landfill.  She was stunned. For as far as the eye could see there was stuff. There was old stuff, broken stuff, discarded stuff and some almost new stuff.  There was so much discarded stuff it made it impossible to believe that there could be an imbalance of trade or the economy could be bad. Somebody paid for the stuff. Now it was in a landfill. It seemed pretty apparent that consumerism was rampant.  This is a convenience truth …. it is easier to buy new than look around and see if you really need what you are buying.

Left overs are a regular part of our dining experience.  There was a time when I would not think of saving left overs.  I certainly didn’t take “doggy bags” home from eating out.  It seemed to be much easier to just cook something fresh than it was to re-heat last nights dinner left overs.  Left overs were not “fresh”.  I never stopped to think about how much money was being scraped into the garbage. Here is a convenience truth … it is easier to buy a prepared meal than it is to heat up leftovers.

I am a full time Realtor.  She teaches Spanish at a private school and works with me in real estate as time permits.  Her mom and daughter live with us and we expect her college daughter to join us in the spring.  When working, I am used to seeing abandoned homes, trashed homes, empty houses.  Our throw away culture has grown to the point where we actually throw away homes.  To some, these homes are just blights on the landscape.  I look at them and see the incredible architecture, the craftsmanship that went into building the homes.  Where others see rot and decay, I see a framework for a home.  It is more convenient to leave them empty and falling down.  Here is an convenience truth … we would rather allow neighborhoods to decay than take the time and effort to take care of existing buildings.

The Amazon is the lungs of the world.

So where is this going.  The inconvenience truth is rather ugly.  Glaciers are melting.  Greenhouse gases are continuing.  Politicians spend a great deal of time in meetings and committees and blowing hot air.  Rather than do what we can to preserve the earth, we point fingers and attempt to assess blame. It is easier to discuss a problem than it is to take corrective action.  Here is a convenience truth … it is easier to enjoy convenience and be wasteful than it is to conserve our natural resources.

I spent the majority of my life, ignorant to the impact that my lifestyle was having on the world around me. I grew up in the land of plenty.  It took life lessons from someone that grew up in a different place, in a different culture to open my eyes to the convenience truth.  There is only one planet.  The oxygen created by the rain forest in the Amazon is the very air that you breathe.  One of the sources of life for that rain forest are the melting glaciers in Peru.

If we fail to begin to conserve our resources, one day you will turn the spigot and nothing will appear.  If we do not change that rate in which we use our energy resources, one day you will flip the switch and nothing will happen.  If we do not begin to live within our means ( very old saying … buy it new and wear it out, pay with cash or do with out), one day we will find our currency is worthless.  If we do not change our wasteful eating habits, one day there we may go to the cupboard and the cupboard will be bare.  If we fail to maintain the buildings that exist, we may never find a way to provide shelter for everyone.  If we continue on the wasteful path we are following, we may wake up to discover that there is nothing left to waste.

This is for my children, and their children and all the following generations.  I may be a much better person today because Lourdes Tudela welcomed me into her world, but her legacy will be that she opened the eyes of many to a better world.  I only hope that those that read this will look beyond jingoistic rhetoric and understand that for us to truly be a world leader… we have to lead. And that my friends is the convenient truth.

If you swim away from shore, you will never reach dry land.

 

There is another thought that comes to mind. It is “”Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana .

Somewhere between the two there is hope for tomorrow.  It must be human nature that causes us to react to tragedy by seeking someone to blame and as a group pointing our collective finger at them.  This reaction was brought to light by the tragedy in Arizona.  It certainly was a made for media event. A judge, a congresswoman and a child and others fell victim to a senseless shooting.  Forensic evidence was still being processed when the finger of blame began making it’s way across the political spectrum.  There may be some validity to the charges that our once civil discourse has moved to a rather base area.  It is no secret that de-sensitizing an entire society has repercussions. I am neither judge nor jury, scholar nor academic.

I do believe that there is a connection between “Roe v. Wade” and the reduced value on life that is exhibited in the violent deaths that occur in our inner cities on a regular basis. Of course, that would be the subject of an entirely different discussion.

It is the start of a new year.  Somehow, lots of people think that January 1st is some sort of bench mark.  Society does not pause, nor does it change course at the stroke of midnight on December 31st.  We are fluid. We can change. We do not have to remain shackled by the mistakes of yesterday. We can move on and make tomorrow better.

As famous as the “Moon dance” by Michael Jackson was, most people did not stop to realize he was looking one way and moving in the other.  The brilliance was in his movement, not his choice of direction.  Focus. His focus was on performing and ours was on the performance.  No one stopped him and said “legs are for moving forward”.  People have walked backwards since man stood erect. He just added style.

The same can be said for mortgage lenders, appraisers, real estate agents, investors, buyers and sellers,etc. that were involved in a real estate transaction during the last five years.  People have been doing exactly what they did since the first real estate transaction was recorded.  No one stopped them. No one stepped forward and asked the all important question – what will be the consequences of your behavior.

We have remained frozen in time.  We have continued to, pardon the expression, “beat a dead horse”.  We spend days, weeks, months and now years attempting to analyze what went wrong.  We are not just remembering the past, we refuse to let it go and move on.  We spend so much energy trying to fix blame, we have little energy left for moving past the mistakes.  It would behoove those in the industry to stop dwelling on yesterday, look at where we are today and take action so that tomorrow is better.

Today interest rates are low but qualifications for loans are more stringent.  Rather than bemoan the tightening that has occurred, we should be marketing to those that still qualify. They do exist. Houses are still being sold every day.  The requirements for acceptable “flipping” have changed. Rather than just walk away from the market, investors should be retooling how they buy and sell.  It is a much harder market.  Agents for years have bemoaned the plethora of agents that are licensed.  Today, you have to know what you are doing to survive. Darwinism has reached into our profession. Rather than complain, it might make more sense to be proud that even in the toughest of times, you are still working.

You have every opportunity to become a leader.  You have every chance to reach out to those that need your services.  You have success before you.  Stop dwelling on the past, stop swimming in the wrong direction.  Turn to the light.  Accept today for what if offers and focus on how to make it better.  Historians will handle the past.